Today’s Market Spotlight

  • Crude Oil (May)

    Crude Oil is lower this morning and this has begun to play out exactly as we have called; price action will again head south once the April contract expires. Inventories will come into play today and API yesterday showed a build of 4.529 mb (though Gasoline was bullish). This helped push Crude through key support at the 47.60-47.70 level. It will be critical for us bears to maintain a close below here. Expectations for EIA come in at +2.8 mb Crude, -1.386 mb Distillates and -2 mb Gasoline. First minor resistance will come in against yesterday’s settlement and the session high of 48.24; a move out above here will encourage a consolidation. Yesterday’s high of 49.48 will also become a critical level.

    Resistance – 49.48**, 50.14-50.22**, 51.00-51.50***, 52.50-52.78**

    Pivot – 48.24

    Support – 47.60-47.71***, 47.09*, 45.78**

    Read our full Morning Call here (3.22.17): iiTRADERs Morning Call

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    03/22/17


  • Read this mornings (3.17.17) full GRAINcast here: iiTRADER GRAINcast

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    03/17/17

  • Crude Oil (April)

    Crude Oil is higher this morning after some jawboning from Saudi Arabia following the FACT that they increased production and API data showed draw of 531,000 barrels of Crude. First, yesterday’s OPEC report showed that Saudi Arabia in fact increased production. However, Saudi officials said that this was for their reserves. There is only one reality here, they pumped more Crude and this eludes to the production cut deal going in only one direction… sour. Do you think Iraq, Iran and Russia are going to like the fact that Saudi Arabia produced more, regardless of where this Crude is earmarked? Surely not. This reduces the already small chance that this production deal is extended into the second half. Crude price action did ascend off of Saudi jawboning, however, we view this only as short covering ahead of inventory data. Furthermore, I need not remind you how long term bearish we are, but we still have been hammering home this April option expiration tomorrow and how this will work to buoy the market. Once we get through this options expiration and the April contract falls off the board next Tuesday, we expect that selling to recommence. Today’s EIA data is due at its regular 9:30 time and expectations are for +3.713 mb Crude, -1.663 mb Distillates, -1.95 Gasoline. Remember our adage that those who would buy because of inventories, many of them have already bought. Unless this report is more bullish than API, immediate gains may be limited. However, a bearish report would send this market lower fairly quickly. First resistance now comes in at 48.96 this morning with 50.00-50.12 being strong resistance through the end of the week. Only a close back above 51.06-51.12 will negate this bearish activity.

    Resistance – 48.96**, 50.12**, 51.06-51.12***

    Support – 47.72-47.90**, 46.65***, 45.00-45.18****

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    03/15/17

  • Crude Oil (April)

    Crude Oil traded to a new swing low of 47.90 last night but has worked to consolidate from it into this morning. The market has given up all gains since after the November 30th OPEC meeting that decided to cut production and after consolidating for more than three months, the chart is now unequivocally broken. We only saw minor adjustments in the CoT of Friday because the data is through each Tuesday, so this week’s report will be key in identifying how many of the record longs fled their position. Key trend line support now comes in at 46.50. We are bears and believe that this might just be the start of a bearish pattern. Now, it will be absolutely key to watch the Dollar this week in the face of a Fed meeting and key inflation data. We also have data out of China tonight. Also, Thursday is April options expiration and there is massive open interest in the put options all the way down, the 30k at the $50 strike is now down to about 28k and there is nearly 18k at the $48 strike with 30k at the three strikes between 47.50 and 48.50. Whether this is protection or speculation it can work to keep price action in check until after expiration. So, you bears looking to chase a quick buck, it will be important to be patient through the end of the week. However, we believe the expiration of the April contract and roll into May the following week could spark another wave of strong selling.

    Resistance – 48.75**, 49.01-49.27*, 50.00-50.15**, 51.00-51.20***

    Pivot - 48.32

    Support – 46.50***, 45.00-45.18****

    Read this mornings (3.13.17) Morning Call here: InsideFutures

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    03/13/17


  • Read this mornings (3.10.17) GRAINcast on here: InsideFutures

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    03/10/17

  • Crude Oil (April)

    You can read the full Morning Call here: InsideFutures

    Crude Oil is down 1% this morning after API data showed a build of 11.6 mb of Crude. Price action yesterday traded to a session high of 53.80 before quickly backing off. Major three star resistance at 54.08-54.34 has held once again but now with a clear lower high. We have tried to hammer home that we are bearish as long as price action stays below the $54 mark and does not close out above major three star resistance. In fact, considering how bullish the talking heads and money managers are (according to the CoT), it feels like we are in a small, small group of bears and this is exactly how we like it. We must see a close below major three star support at 51.00-51.22 in order to spark further selling. In fact, a close below there could potentially bring a move to the $45 mark in a matter of two to three days. However, we still have the official EIA report this morning and price action is testing first major support at 52.31-52.40. Expectations for this report are not only not in the same ballpark as API, but not in the same galaxy; Crude +1.967 mb, Distillates -.9 mb and Gasoline -1.4 mb. When you look at the overall API report of the three it comes in at +3.7 mb. Now this is something that the EIA could hit. However, the shock value that was caused by a build of 11.6 mb has already forced anyone who wants to sell because of inventory data to sell and this EIA report can almost only disappoint the bears. Traders must look at the numbers as a whole as well as estimated production data. Resistance will come in against the high of the session and yesterday’s settlement at 52.92-53.14 and sustained price action above here would help elevate prices further.

    Resistance – 52.92-53.14**, 53.50*, 54.08-54.34***, 54.96-55.24**, 56.92***, 58.97****

    Support – 52.31-52.40**, 51.86**, 51.00-51.20***, 48.32**, 45.00-45.18****

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    03/08/17

  • E-mini S&P (March)

     The S&P is lower this morning after a somewhat subdued Friday session. U.S indices raced to new all-time highs last week but we believe this led to a culmination of enthusiasm and there is a lot going on right now. Let’s start with the enthusiasm; Fidelity, E-Trade and the likes are trying to draw the last bit of investors to the market by lowering their commission rates closer to rock-bottom while the market is at all-time highs and this really makes one think. Next we have the IPO of Snapchat and with confetti being thrown around the NYSE, it was called the biggest thing since Alibaba. We must not forget that Alibaba’s IPO on September 19th 2014 was the high in the S&P before a 10% selloff. There was a lot of enthusiasm then as there was a lot of potential catalysts for a selloff even before the IPO; everything from geopolitical risks such as Russia invading Ukraine to the Fed tightening policy. However, the 10% selloff was blamed on what arose that week which was Ebola. Just as there are catalysts right now; uncertainty in President Trump’s policy, a potential rate hike the same day that the debt ceiling comes into play on March 15th; a jobs report this Friday, quadruple witching day next Friday (quad witching was on 9/19/14), a clash between Trump and Obama, Russia and North Korea. The point is the catalysts are there but what might actually spark the selling could still be unknown.

    After settling Friday’s session at 2381.25 the market opened up lower Sunday night and traded to what is now first support at the 2369 retracement level. Below there is further support that comes in the tune of a daily trend line at 2365 and a weekly trend line at 2360. A close below last week’s low of 2357.50 should spark further selling. However, until then trend line supports should bring a decent intraday buying opportunity.

    Resistance – 2381.25**, 2390.75-2393.50**, 2400-2401**, 2408**, 2423.50***

    Pivot – 2374.25

    Support – 2369**, 2365**, 2357.50-2360***, 2340***


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    03/06/17

  • iiTrader’s Sloup Says Chance of March Hike Increasing

    If you missed our interview with Bloomberg yesterday morning, click the link above; we break down the Fed, Gold and Crude

    03/02/17

  • Gold (April) 

    Gold settled yesterday’s session at 1253.9 but post-settlement comments out of the Fed put pressure on the metal to a session low of 1248.2. Further comments from NY Fed President Bill Dudley that the “better than expected data and above trend growth support an interest rate hike relatively soon and the Fed will need to continue removing policy accommodation”. This is exactly what we want to see, some now have the odds of a March hike as high as 60%. Yields are higher this morning and the Dollar has made its way back to the 102 benchmark, we find resistance at 102.30-102.60. PCE data this morning was mixed while Personal Spending and Consumption fell noticeably short. We have ISM Manufacturing due at 9:00 am CT and this will be critical. Janet Yellen and Stanley Fischer are both scheduled to speak on Friday and we are eyeing ISM Non-Manufacturing data as well. We now have the March meeting squarely in focus and it remains to be seen if Yellen and Fischer confirm this but furthermore, the Services sector data is going to be much more critical than many expect. We expect a path of least resistance lower into Friday for Gold and from there it should begin a bottoming process; ultimately right now we do not think the Fed will hike in March and there is still jobs and inflation numbers next week. The bears look to achieve a close below 1237.9-1239.9 today while minor support comes in at 1235.6. First major support comes in at 1232-1233.4 and this aligns with a trend lien from late December. For now, we are still targeting major three star support at 1217.5-1223.7 as a spot to flip long.

    Resistance – 1246.8-1249.7**, 1255.6**, 1261.2-1264.9**, 1271.2***, 1280.8**

    Pivot - 1237.9-1239.9

    Support – 1235.6*, 1232-1233.4**, 1217.5-1223.7***

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    03/01/17


  • Read this mornings GRAINcast on Inside Futures: Read Now

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    02/24/17

  • Crude Oil (April)

    Crude Oil is up nearly 2% this morning following a surprise drop in inventories reported by API after the close yesterday. If confirmed by the official EIA report at 10 am CT today, this will be the first drop after six straight weeks of not only builds but large builds (expectations: +3.475 mb Crude, -.483 mb Distillates and -.888 mb Gasoline). We have discussed that inventories are less important than say, a year ago. However, many of the market participants willing to trade off of inventories are likely to react to the API number. With API reporting builds a day ahead of EIA, this has encouraged those participants to sell a half a day ahead of the official report. What does this mean? If everyone who is looking to sell has already sold, than who is left to sell. This has reduced the significance of builds reported by the EIA and hence helps somewhat explain the bullish reversals an hour after the report for the last couple weeks. What we are getting at is that after API has now reported a draw, if EIA reports its expectations, a decent build, we could see a sharp reversal lower. We will continue to watch the 54.08-54.34 three star level on a closing basis; a close back below there will encourage further selling. Strong resistance comes in just above at 54.96-55.24 and a close above there will be bullish.

    Resistance –54.96-55.24**, 56.92***, 58.97****

    Pivot - 54.08-54.34***

    Support – 53.35-53.44**, 52.31-52.40**, 51.86**, 51.00-51.22***, 48.32**, 45.00-45.18****

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    02/23/17


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    02/17/17

  • Crude Oil (April)

    April Crude Oil is retreating from the key $54 level this morning. Major three star resistance remains at 54.08-54.34 which also encompasses the April 50 day moving average. This level has kept a lid on the front month market since being tested in December for the first time since June 2015. Now that April is front month this level can become a defining moment for the market. We say this because April Crude has been trading at and just above this level for the last month and if it fails to regain its previous price action this should really open the door for the bear camp. Furthermore, after each contract roll, the new contracts have had less and less volatility in the previous six months when compared to the front month; this should ultimately lead to new and more volatility as it is now front month. Major three star support remains at 51.59-51.75 and a close below here should open the door to $45.

    Resistance – 54.08-54.34***, 54.96-55.24**, 56.92***, 58.97****

    Support – 53.12**, 52.31**, 51.59-51.75***, 50.94**, 48.32***, 45.00-45.18****

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    02/17/17


  • Open an account today and start trading/hedging on your own, or working with our team of professionals

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    02/10/17

  • As gold hits a three-month high, here’s how investors suggest playing it now

    If you missed our interview with CNBC on 2/7/17 discussing the gold market you can click the link above to watch ^^

    02/10/17