Today’s Market Spotlight


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    02/17/17

  • Crude Oil (April)

    April Crude Oil is retreating from the key $54 level this morning. Major three star resistance remains at 54.08-54.34 which also encompasses the April 50 day moving average. This level has kept a lid on the front month market since being tested in December for the first time since June 2015. Now that April is front month this level can become a defining moment for the market. We say this because April Crude has been trading at and just above this level for the last month and if it fails to regain its previous price action this should really open the door for the bear camp. Furthermore, after each contract roll, the new contracts have had less and less volatility in the previous six months when compared to the front month; this should ultimately lead to new and more volatility as it is now front month. Major three star support remains at 51.59-51.75 and a close below here should open the door to $45.

    Resistance – 54.08-54.34***, 54.96-55.24**, 56.92***, 58.97****

    Support – 53.12**, 52.31**, 51.59-51.75***, 50.94**, 48.32***, 45.00-45.18****

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    02/17/17


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    02/10/17

  • As gold hits a three-month high, here’s how investors suggest playing it now

    If you missed our interview with CNBC on 2/7/17 discussing the gold market you can click the link above to watch ^^

    02/10/17

  • Market Strategist Says the Dollar Is Driving Oil Market

    Click the link above to watch our interview with Bloomberg ^^

    02/08/17

  • Crude Oil (March)

    Crude Oil took out our major three star support at 51.59-51.75 late yesterday. The market traded to a low of 51.22 after API reported the second largest build in history at 14.2 mb. Prices have stabilized into this morning ahead of the official EIA data. We have recently expressed that inventories from both EIA and API must be taken with a grain of salt; for instance this is not a year ago where levels at Cushing, Oklahoma threatened a fire sale. However, if this large build is confirmed by EIA and is a product of a big jump in estimated production, this could send prices much lower. We are seeing a tug of war between OPEC cuts and rising US Shale production; as Shale picks up it puts pressure on prices and leads to comments from OPEC that they might need to extend production cuts into the second half of this year. This is nothing new and everyone understands this concept to some degree. What many don’t understand is that we believe Oil prices would have already tested 58.97 and $60 if it wasn’t for such a strong Dollar. There is no need to look further than last year when the Dollar began a two and a half month descent of 6.5% that marked the bottom in Crude. Too many analysts and traders are stuck in the forest and cannot see the trees; yes the Dollar is about 3% from its recent high but to a stronger point it is about 10% from its low last year! This tug of war between OPEC and US Shale is moving the market but for those still saying that we need to see $60 because the number sounds nice, we need more from OPEC to do so. This is because prices have essentially already tested $60 relative to where the Dollar was in August and September.

    Resistance – 52.60-52.80**, 53.24**, 54.08-54.34***, 55.09-55.24**, 56.18-56.24***, 58.97****

    Support – 51.59-51.75****, 50.37***, 48.97**, 46.62-47.26**, 44.49-45.00****

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    02/08/17


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    02/06/17

  • Gold (April) 

    Gold is higher this morning with the Dollar as the two safe haven assets are seeing a bid together along with Treasuries. Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll data showed a strong headline but growth in Average Hourly Earnings poorly disappointed. Overall, uncertainty has kept Gold prices moving north. However, the Dollar battled off of key support levels through last week and it is unlikely to see both move in the same direction for an extended period of time. The 100 day moving average for Gold comes in at 1232.6 and this will bring strong resistance that the bulls look to secure a close above.

    Resistance – 1232.6**, 1251.3-1255.6**, 1273.9***

    Pivot - 1226.1-1227.5***

    Support – 1223*, 1219.4-1220.8**, 1215.9**, 1208.3-1210.3**, 1199.7**, 1182.6-1186.4***

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    02/06/17


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    02/03/17

  • Crude Oil (March)

    Crude Oil is up slightly this morning and continues to trade in a consolidation pattern. Price action traded to an overnight high of 54.05 and again stalled against our major three star resistance at 54.08-54.34. The market is waiting on a catalyst to break it out above resistance or below major support in order to spark a directional move. The Dollar remains key to the trade and though it has gone somewhat unnoticed because the Dollar is 3-4% from its recent highs, it is important to remember that it is still at a very high level and likely holding Crude back from breaking out to the upside. Baker Hughes data is due at noon.

    Resistance - 54.08-54.34***, 55.09-55.24**, 56.18-56.24***, 58.97****

    Pivot - 53.88

    Support –53.41-53.49**, 52.63-52.85**, 52.24**, 51.59-51.75****, 50.37***

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    02/03/17

  • Natural Gas (March)

    March natural gas futures are trading slightly softer this morning after reversing off of technical resistance during yesterdays session.  That resistance comes in at 3.246 and remains intact for todays session.  On the support side of things, we are watching the January 9th lows at 3.11.  If that gives way we could see accelerated selling pressure come into the market and lead us to fill the gap from November 18th which comes in at 3.024.  Keep in mind that it is inventory day, the EIA report will be released at 9:30cst and traders are expecting to see a drawdown of 88 billion cubic feet; well below the five year average.  It is likely that some of this has been priced into the market so a slightly bigger drawdown could help prices firm up towards the weekend where we have seen a bid over the last few weeks. 

    Resistance- 3.233- 3.246**, 3.28-3.317**, 3.421-3.424**, 3.468-3.489***  

    Support –3.098-3.11****, 3.02-3.066**, 2.764****

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    02/02/17


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    02/01/17

  • Gold (April)

    February Gold came off of a low of 1179.7 on Friday to settle at 1188.4, traders must use April going forward. Major three star support was at 1183.5-1185.9 and the market failed to close below there (this level now widens to 1182.6-1186.4 in the April contract, the bears must achieve a close below here). Weaker than expected GDP sparked the reversal and the market grinded higher into the electronic close. Shortly after the close, President Trump signed a travel ban into order and some may look to Gold because of this. Liberal media has been in a frenzy and one must remind oneself that hedge funds and big players in the market are not watching liberal media to make trading decisions. Furthermore, this move was about as expected as it gets. What should be in focus this week is a plethora of data to accompany Wednesday’s Fed decision. Core PCE this morning was in line with expectations and though Personal Income was a little light, revisions from last month offset that. We have Pending Home Sales due at 9:00 am CT and the Bank of Japan tonight. First resistance today comes in at 1198.

    Resistance – 1198**, 1202.8**, 1207.2-1207.6**, 1213.5**, 1220.1-1223***, 1238.8**

    Support – 1182.6-1186.4***, 1179.7**, 1172.2**, 1160.9-1164.3***, 1146.5-1146.9***

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    01/30/17


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    01/26/17

  • Gold (February)

    Gold is lower again this morning and testing our intermediate term target and three star support at 1183.5-1185.9 ahead of options expiration. Technically, we have voiced that the metal was overstretched while the Dollar is at a critical support level. With the Dollar back in the green this morning and a potential bottoming process in place we could see further pressure on Gold through key support while the Dollar makes its way to 102 (this will be very data dependent with GDP and Durable Goods tomorrow). Jobless Claims, Trade Balance and Wholesale Inventories all missed this morning and we are awaiting Services PMI at 8:45 am CT and New Home Sales at 9:00. Heading into option expiration today for the underlying February main contract, the open interest in put options slowly accumulated over the last week at cheap prices, while open interest in the calls remained very high and still outweighed the puts. Where will the most pain come? By making in-the-money calls go worthless, which we have seen into this morning. Furthermore, the accumulation of cheap puts can exacerbate a move lower.

    Resistance – 1202.3**, 1207.2-1209.3**, 1213.6-1315.6***, 1220.1**, 1224.6**, 1246.9**, 1255.6***

    Pivot - 1195.5-1198.1

    Support – 1183.5-1185.9***, 1179.7**, 1172.2**, 1160.9-1164.3***, 1146.5-1146.9***

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    01/26/17